India's economy is unlikely to see double-digit growth and may grow between 8 per cent and 9 per cent this fiscal year (2021-22, or FY22), against the estimated 11.5 per cent, according to leading economists and rating agencies. The downward revision of growth projections to as low as 10 per cent is mostly on account of stringency in restrictions by states, relatively slow vaccination pace, and the possibility of a third wave of the pandemic. However, they say the impact will not be as severe as the first wave, and expect the first quarter to see positive growth.
India's manufacturing sector activities improved in September as companies benefited from strengthening demand conditions amid the easing of COVID-19 restrictions, a monthly survey said on Friday. The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) improved from 52.3 in August to 53.7 in September, indicating a stronger expansion in overall business conditions across the sector. The September PMI data pointed to an improvement in overall operating conditions for the third straight month. In PMI parlance, a print above 50 means expansion while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
Indian economy is set for a 'goldilocks' period -- used to describe a timeframe of high growth and low inflation -- while it can become Asia's fastest growing economy in 2016, Japanese financial major Nomura said.
A head of its meeting, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) can take some solace from the softening food commodity prices. However, the events surrounding the last few weeks show that the fall may not be uniform across all commodities, and cereals like wheat and rice could be the outliers. A Reuters report said that local wheat prices jumped to a record Rs 23,547 per tonne on Wednesday. That is a 12 per cent rise from the recent lows that followed the government's surprise ban on exports on May 14.
We have our own problems for sure and they are not trivial, but for now, our economy is in not too bad a shape, our politics is as personality-driven and authoritarian as that of most countries in the world. We must make the best of what we have and not be excessively unhappy looking at the grass on the other side of the septic tank which may not be greener after all!, observes Shreekant Sambrani.
There are indications or signs of the economy picking up -- collection of GST and consumption of electricity, said former RBI governor, C Rangarajan.
Until recently, average incomes in advanced countries were increasing at much faster rates than in the rest of the world.
'Did the Moneyball philosophy get redefined in the domain of the cash-rich IPL, which has become an integral part of the cricketing ecosystem?' asks Atanu Biswas.
So, while it is great that India's numbers look relatively good, don't raise a cheer just yet, points out T N Ninan.
India stands out as a poor and very unequal country, with the top 1 per cent of the population holding more than one-fifth of the total national income in 2021 and the bottom half just 13 per cent, according to a report. The report, titled ' World Inequality Report 2022', has been authored by Lucas Chancel, co-director of the World Inequality Lab, and coordinated by several experts, including French economist Thomas Piketty. It further said India is now among the most unequal countries in the world.
'...and defensive until the global macro headwinds turn more benign.'
Reiterating his earlier stance, BJP's Rajya Sabha member Subramanian Swamy has written a letter to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, asking him to sack RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan.
Would more Indians be better off if rich Indians were more austere?
Most economists say the impact on inflation could be substantial, considering that steel prices rose by over 9 per cent in the past year.
For Duflo and Banerjee, an important part of their work has been ensuring that the agency of the "beneficiaries" -- usually, in developing countries like India, poorer individuals -- is put at the centre of any policy design. This is a crucial way in which experimental results are often better than large scale data-based inference, says Mihir S Sharma.
'He also understands and foresees potential challenges.'
Meet Dr Aaron K Chatterji whose academic research, policy work and public service has been recognised by the international nonprofit organisation.
Food prices, which have contributed to a large part of inflation over recent years, have remained benign, despite unseasonal rain.
While a DFI will help banks derisk their loan portfolios, creation of a bad bank will clean up their balance sheets.
'The most important thing to do is to stop taxing citizens so brutally,' recommends T C A Srinivasa-Raghavan.
The thing is that unemployment and joblessness are a personally felt shame. It is not easy to mobilise a set of people who identify with others as a group that cannot get work, asserts Aakar Patel.
While the tax-to-GDP ratio of 9.88 per cent has been assumed for FY21, the same as last year, when it touched a decadal low, for FY22 a ratio of 10.7 per cent has been assumed, an average of the last five years.
India's exports jumped 45.76 per cent to $33.28 billion in August on account of healthy growth in segments like engineering, petroleum products, gems and jewellery and chemicals, even as the trade deficit widened to a four-month high of $13.81 billion.
While all real estate is local, not all property buyers are.
"I am very happy and proud of his achievements. I am yet to speak to him. I think he must be sleeping as it's still night in the United States," she said.
'The UPA's claim of growth at 9.5 percent was absolute nonsense and a fraudulent claim because the country did not grow; it was only statistical growth.' 'I do believe that when there is a determined leader who wants to bring a desired change, the system will begin acting. Today, people think there is policy paralysis, but there is functional paralysis also.' 'When things start moving, people will invest. Many companies are holding cash, many people are not investing. Nobody is making any move. Everybody is waiting for the elections to get over.' Economist and Swadeshi Jagran Manch convenor Swaminathan Gurumurthy in conversation with Shobha Warrier/Rediff.com
'Unemployment barely figures in the Budget except as a derived demand from the industry and infrastructure.' 'There is no effort at direct attack on unemployment.'
Bank of America (BofA) Securities expects India to be the third-largest economy in the world by 2031. The economic rise could become a reality by 2028, but the Covid pandemic delayed the pace, BofA Securities economists Indranil Sen Gupta and Aastha Gudwani wrote in a report.
'India is in a slowdown which most of us have not seen in our living memory.'
Retail investors have gained significant heft in the past year amid a sustained uptick in Indian equities. The share of retail investors in companies listed on the NSE reached an all-time high of 7.32 per cent in the quarter ended December 31, 2021, up from 7.13 per cent in the previous quarter and 6.9 per cent a year ago, the data from PRIME Infobase shows. This was despite the Nifty's 1.5 per cent decline during the quarter.
The P V Narasimha Rao government in the 1990s had been on the verge of bringing to India the ashes, believed to be the mortal remains of Subhas Chandra Bose now kept at the Renkoji Temple in Japan, but was dissuaded from doing so due to an intelligence report.
India has remained obsessed with cheap capital and infrastructure spending when instead the central constraint on Indian development remains the abysmal quality of Indians' skills, says Mihir Sharma.
Goldman Sachs forecasts real GDP growth to accelerate to 7.9 per cent in FY17 from a projected 7.5 per cent in FY16.
A ramp-up in COVID-19 vaccination, healthy advance estimates of kharif (summer) crop and faster government spending were the factors which led to the revision, the agency said in a statement. It can be noted that after the 7.3 per cent contraction in 2020-21, there were expectations of a higher growth number in 2021-22.
This year's Laureates have shown how the problem of global poverty can be tackled by breaking it down into a number of smaller - but more precise - questions at individual or group levels, he Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences said.
The pattern of economic growth in India is lop-sided, leaving a vast section of the society vulnerable, says an economist from Jawaharlal Nehru University.
The country's exports rose by 48.34 per cent to $32.5 billion on account of healthy growth in shipments of petroleum products, gems and jewellery, and chemicals, leather and marine goods, according to the data released by the Commerce Ministry on Thursday. Imports in June too rose by 98.31 per cent to $41.87 billion, leaving a trade deficit of $9.37 billion as against a trade surplus of $0.79 billion in the same month last year. During April-June 2021, the exports increased by 85.88 per cent to $95.39 billion.
He takes over at Mint Road at a time when the governor's job is even less easy than it is normally.
